The return of Donald Trump to the White House raises significant questions about the future of US public diplomacy and its implications for the UK's soft power capabilities. Drawing on materials from conservative think tanks close to Trump, including the America First Policy Institute (AFPI) and Project 2025, several key trends emerge that could reshape the transatlantic relationship and both nations' global influence.
Reorienting US Public Diplomacy
A second Trump administration would likely pursue an "America First" approach to public diplomacy that differs markedly from traditional US practice. The emphasis would shift from multilateral engagement and alliance-building to more transactional relationships focused on immediate US interests. This could manifest in several ways.
Firstly, there would likely be reduced emphasis on traditional public diplomacy tools like educational exchanges, cultural programmes, and multilateral forums. Instead, the focus would be on direct bilateral deals and more overtly nationalist messaging.
Secondly, national security would become the dominant frame for public diplomacy efforts, particularly regarding China, Iran, and Russia. While this might resonate with some audiences, it could limit opportunities for the kind of people-to-people diplomacy that has historically been crucial for building long-term relationships and influence.
Thirdly, the promotion of socially conservative values could create friction with many traditional allies, particularly in Europe, potentially complicating public diplomacy efforts in these regions.
Implications for UK Soft Power
For the UK, these changes would present both challenges and opportunities. The British Council's current strategy emphasises values of openness, cultural exchange and multilateral engagement - approaches that could be increasingly at odds with US positioning. This divergence might require the UK to:
- Further differentiate its soft power offering from that of the US, potentially emphasising its role as a bridge between American and European approaches.
- Strengthen bilateral cultural and educational relationships with other partners, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, and
Take a more prominent role in defending multilateral institutions and frameworks that support international cultural exchange
However, there are also potential opportunities. The UK's status outside the EU but with deep European connections could position it as a valuable intermediary. Additionally, any US withdrawal from traditional public diplomacy activities could create space for enhanced UK influence in areas like higher education, cultural exchange, and English language teaching.
Institutional Implications
The impact on institutions would be significant. Bodies like the British Council might need to adapt their approaches, particularly in regions where US and UK interests diverge. There could be increased pressure to demonstrate concrete returns on investment in soft power activities, potentially shifting focus toward more measurable outcomes.
The implications for multilateral institutions supporting cultural exchange and public diplomacy could be particularly profound. A reduced US commitment to UNESCO, for instance, might require other nations, including the UK, to step up their support for such organisations.
Looking Ahead
The potential changes suggest a need for the UK to develop a more autonomous approach to public diplomacy while maintaining its crucial relationship with the US. This might involve:
- Developing more robust regional strategies that are not dependent on US alignment.
- Investing in distinctive UK soft power assets like the BBC World Service, British Council, and higher education sector, and
Building stronger networks with like-minded middle powers committed to open cultural exchange.
The challenge will be balancing these adaptations while maintaining strong ties with the US and avoiding unnecessary confrontation. Success will require careful diplomacy and clear strategic thinking about the UK's distinct role in global cultural relations.
For practitioners and policymakers in both countries, the key will be maintaining functional working relationships while navigating potentially divergent approaches to public diplomacy. This may require new frameworks for cooperation that acknowledge different philosophical approaches while preserving practical collaboration where interests align.
Conclusion
While much remains uncertain, it seems clear that a second Trump term could prompt significant changes in how both the US and UK conduct public diplomacy. For the UK, this presents both challenges and opportunities to refine and possibly expand its soft power approach. Success will require careful strategic planning, institutional flexibility, and a clear vision of Britain's distinct role in global cultural relations.